Before the Braves and Cubs begin a three-game series tonight at Wrigley Field, Charlie DiSturco of The Action Network is here to give his best bet (video above).
The Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound in the Windy City, while the Cubs will counter with Keegan Thompson. And, even though the Braves arrive at this contest having won 14 straight games, DiSturco believes there’s value with the underdog tonight.
The logic? Thompson brings a home pitching edge while Morton has struggled of late.
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“Opponents have a .276 expected batting average against Morton, who has given up a 42.7 percent hard hit rate,” DiSturco explains.
Both of those metrics are career-lows for Morton, who has also surrendered an eight percent barrel rate and 5.01 expected ERA this season. Further, Morton’s walks are up while his strikeouts are down this season.
After registering a 3.34 ERA in 33 starts last season, Charlie Morton has seen his ERA balloon by more than two runs per game.Getty ImagesOn the flip-side, Thompson has witnessed his fair share of struggles, but there are still positive underlying metrics. Opponents have only a .242 expected batting average against the right-hander, who brings a 4.05 xERA into this matchup.
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Thompson also ranks in the top-20 percent of all pitchers in terms of hard hit rate and average exit velocity. Plus, he’s pitched much better at home this season — at Wrigley Field, his ERA is 1.80 against a 6.63 ERA on the road.
For all those reasons, DiSturco recommends holding your nose and backing the Chicago Cubs Moneyline (+155) as he would play it down to +140.
