With the chalk mostly holding in the Round of 32, we, the people, are getting an epic Sweet 16 filled with potential March Madness national champions, all worthy of a banner.
Here are a few gambling-related comments on all eight Thursday and Friday matchups, including a “Pass or Play” verdict.
All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
West region: No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 2 Arizona
Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS
Arizona -6.5, Over/Under 152
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While the Tigers match up well with the Wildcats schematically, they also lack the necessary size and athleticism to compete with an overwhelming Arizona squad.
I’m also worried about the Tigers’ travel issue, given this game is being played in Los Angeles, giving Arizona a rather vast proximity advantage.
Verdict: Pass
East region: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 1 UConn
Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS
UConn -11, Over/Under 135.5
Theoretically, San Diego State’s athleticism and switchability on defense are perfect for stopping UConn’s pattern motion offense.
However, UConn is a buzzsaw, and Dan Hurley has built a variable, elaborate, versatile offense that inevitably exploits the opponent’s weaknesses.
On the other end of the court, San Diego State’s offense is worse than the one that met UConn in the National Championship game last year. The Aztecs can’t shoot, don’t have a stud go-to scoring guard like Matt Bradley and are heavily reliant on big man JaeDon Leedee, who likely will be swallowed up by Donovan Clingan and the nation’s fourth-best two-point defense (43%).
I lean toward laying the points with UConn, but the Huskies are overvalued in the markets – KenPom projects them as eight-point favorites – and SDSU could muck the game up to keep it close.
Verdict: Pass
RJ Davis should eat for North Carolina. Getty ImagesWest region: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS
UNC -4, Over/Under 173.5
Alabama runs a drop-coverage defense with zero rim protection. RJ Davis should tear up the former, while Armando Bacot rips up the latter.
Even worse, Alabama fouls too much and can’t rebound anything, while the Heels rank in the top 80 nationally in offensive rebounding and free-throw rates.
It’ll be hard for the Heels to stop the Tide, but North Carolina boasts the nation’s best transition denial defense and an elite rim-and-3 defense, two huge advantages against Nate Oats-ball, an up-tempo rim-and-3 attack.
UNC should score on every possession while forcing just enough stops to earn another trip to the Elite Eight.
Verdict: Play – North Carolina -4
East region: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS
Iowa State -1.5, Over/Under 146
Iowa State runs an aggressive ball-screen blitz defense, the nation’s best by efficiency.
But leaning into isolation creation is an excellent way to circumvent the blitz.
Illinois has evolved into the nation’s best offense by leaning entirely into five-out iso-ball, primarily creating with Terrance Shannon, Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins.
Another way to beat the blitz is through second-chance and charity-stripe points, as the scheme’s inherently aggressive nature often fouls and leaves the boards open.
Illinois draws fouls at a top-70 rate, and it’s nearly impossible not to foul Shannon on drives. The Illini also grab offensive rebounds and score second-chance points at top-15 rates.
Of course, Illinois’ porous defense can get shredded by anyone, and this is really about whether you trust the Illini’s offense or the Cyclones’ defense more.
I trust the Illini’s offense, especially given the matchup. There’s no evidence that Iowa State’s offense can keep up.
Verdict: Play – Illinois +1.5
Illinois faces Iowa State on Thursday in the East region. Getty ImagesSouth region: No. 11 North Carolina State vs. No. 2 Marquette
Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS
Marquette -6.5, Over/Under 151
Two big questions surround this game:
- Can Marquette stop DJ Burns in the post?
- Can NC State stop Marquette’s pick-and-roll offense?
The answer to the first question is … maybe?
The answer to the second question is … probably not?
This game is murky to handicap. If I had to, I’d likely play the Over, especially considering NC State’s lackluster transition defense has led to five consecutive Wolfpack games going Over.
Verdict: Pass
Midwest region: No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS
Purdue -5.5, Over/Under 154.5
I love this matchup for a surging Gonzaga team that is scoring at will while playing excellent low-post defense. The latter point is imperative to stopping Zach Edey and the post-heavy, post-only Boilermakers.
But there’s one monster issue.
The Zags have been excellent at not fouling this season, but that might not matter against Edey, who can draw fouls at nearly unprecedented rates.
And the Bulldogs have no bench, ranking 342nd nationally in bench minutes while running a (barely) seven-man rotation.
If any Zag gets in early foul trouble, especially Graham Ike, Purdue likely runs away with the game, and it’s tough to know how the whistle will be called.
Verdict: Pass
Zach Edey has Purdue two wins away from the Final Four. Getty ImagesSouth region: No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Houston
Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS
Houston -4, Over/Under 134
You don’t beat Houston’s ball-screen blitz defense with ball-screen creation and post feeds.
You must beat Houston with five-out zoom actions, crisp perimeter passing and dominant weak-side shooting.
Unfortunately, Duke’s entire offense is based around the screen-and-roll game with Kyle Filipowski.
While he’s an excellent roll-man, the Cougars’ athleticism and physicality will overwhelm him and the Blue Devils at the point of attack. They’re too good at defending ball-screen creation and high-post feeds.
Vermont was able to hold Duke to 64 points on 0.92 PPP, including Filipowski to three points on one shot, with two dominant, physical mid-major defenders and a mediocre low-major ball-screen coverage defense.
Imagine what Houston is going to do.
I’m a little worried about the Cougars’ ability to generate offense, but I seriously think Duke might score 50 or fewer here.
Houston controls the game for 40 minutes with defense and covers.
Verdict: Play – Houston -4
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Midwest region: No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS
Tennessee -3, Over/Under 134
Creighton runs a drop-coverage defense that forces on-ball middle-of-the-floor shot creation.
Dalton Knecht is arguably the best on-ball middle-of-the-floor creator in the nation, and he should shred the Bluejays’ KalkDrop.
Against some other drop-coverage defenses this season, Knecht scored:
- 31 in the first matchup with South Carolina
- 26 in the second matchup with South Carolina
- 25 in the first matchup with Alabama
- 39 in the only matchup with Florida
On the other end of the court, Rick Barnes’ defense is excellent on the perimeter, in the gaps and at the rim, where Ryan Kalkbrenner’s inside-out motion offense likes to work.
Not to mention, Creighton is soft physically, allowing Jermaine Cousinard and Nfaly Dante to keep it close for 50 minutes as Oregon’s only offense.
That won’t work against Tennessee.
Verdict: Play – Tennessee -3
