The zombie Heat proved they’re not dead yet with an impressive 111-108 Game 2 win in Denver.
Miami has officially put Denver on notice, and we have a series.
It’s a good time to re-examine the NBA Finals betting market. I think we can buy low on the Nuggets entering Game 3.
Odds via Caesars
NBA Finals Series odds
Series ML: Heat (+225) vs. Nuggets (-275)
Series Games Spread: Heat +1.5 (-135) vs. Nuggets -1.5 (+110)
NBA Finals Series prediction
Let’s recap Game 2:
The Heat shot 48.7% from 3 (17-for-35), spurred by surreal shot-making from Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love.
Meanwhile, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined to shoot 5-for-14 from deep, and that doesn’t include Michael Porter Jr.’s disaster class (1-for-6 from 3, a team-low -15 in his worst two-way performance of the playoffs).
Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets is a mismatch nightmare for the Heat. Getty ImagesPer ShotQuality’s advanced metrics, the Heat were expected to score 13 fewer points on 3-pointers in a six-point loss, based on the quality of shots taken and allowed.
Moreover, Miami got a tad lucky down the stretch, with a clear goaltend and an illegal screen on Bam Adebayo going uncalled.
The Heat also needed a wild fourth-quarter comeback, ending the game on a 36-25 run after trailing by as many as 15.
While Nikola Jokic put together a beautiful 41-point, 11-rebound, four-assist performance, it was still a perfect storm for Miami.
The Heat needed everything to break right to win Game 2, and it ultimately did.
Let’s be real: Do you expect this to happen three more times?
The Heat could keep out-shooting expectations, given they’ve been doing it this entire playoff run.
But even if that continues, we can still reasonably expect bounce-back performances from Porter and the Nuggets’ role players, which would tip the scales back in Denver’s favor.
Denver looked dominant for most of Games 1 and 2, and I still believe the Nuggets are the far superior team.
I don’t see the Heat stopping the Jokic-centered spread offense once the role players round back into form.
Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat prepares to shoot a free throwNBAE via Getty ImagesMost importantly, however, I expect Denver to win Game 3.
The smart money has already poured in on Denver, pushing the line from Nuggets -1.5 to -2.5.
If the Nuggets win Game 3, the series prices will flip back toward heavily favoring Denver.
The market might never get lower on Denver than it is right now.
Betting on the NBA?
With that in mind, I’m willing to take another shot with Denver’s series spread at Caesars.
We’re getting plus-money odds on the wager, and I still feel that Denver in five or six is the most likely outcome.
NBA Finals Series Pick
Nuggets -1.5 games (+110, Caesars)
