The Heat put together an inspired performance in Game 2, coming away with a gutsy three-point road victory to steal home-court advantage in the NBA Finals.
But that victory needed more than just performance.
It also needed a lot of luck.
Read on for our betting prediction and pick for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3.
Odds via BetMGM
Jamal Murray and the Nuggets were not happy with officials on Sunday. Getty ImagesHeat vs. Nuggets prediction
The Heat shot 49% from 3 in Game 2. Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, and Duncan Robinson combined to shoot 13-for-24 from deep (54%).
The Nuggets hit 39% of their 3s, but their essential role players came up flat.
Specifically, Michael Porter Jr. had his worst two-way performance of the season, pairing a 3-for-14 shooting performance with a -15 plus-minus mark.
Miami also managed a wild fourth-quarter comeback – out-scoring the Nuggets 36-25 over the final 12 minutes – which included some questionable officiating calls involving Bam Adebayo (an uncalled goaltending and illegal screen).
The Heat needed positive shot variance, disastrous play from Denver’s role players, and some late officiating luck to come away with a three-point win.
In other words, the Heat needed everything to break right for them to win, and it did.
I’m not sure we can expect the same again.
The website ShotQuality estimates final scores based on the quality of shots taken and allowed, as opposed to whether they went in.
By their numbers, the Nuggets won Game 2 105-99.
Ultimately, I expect two main things to happen in Game 3.
First, the Heat should see serious shooting regression, especially from its role players (some of the fourth-quarter shot-making from the Heat was crazy).
Second, the Nuggets should make important defensive adjustments and increase the defensive intensity.
Denver looked lost at times on defense in Game 2, especially with their rotations, and Porter needs to be much better, considering his frame and defensive ceiling.
From those expectations, I’ll be making two wagers.
As long as the Heat see some late-game regression (including from an officiating standpoint), the Nuggets should flip the script and steal Game 3.
So, give me the Nuggets -2.5 (-110).
And, as long as the Heat see some shooting regression, the Nuggets should improve defensively, and the scoring should decrease significantly. So, I like the under 214.5 (-110).
Adding to the angle on the under is the expected pace.
Game 1 saw a 91-possession pace, while Game 2 saw an 87-possession pace.
These are slower-paced, limited-possession games, which should favor a low-scoring game.
The total went over in Game 2, but it took a mesmerizing offensive performance from both teams.
Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat dribblesNBAE via Getty ImagesBetting on the NBA?
The Heat and Nuggets combined for a 126 Offensive Rating, yet the total went over by a measly five points.
Between Miami’s expected shooting regression and Denver’s expected defensive adjustments, I expect a lower-scoring Nuggets victory.
Take that to the bank with these two picks.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3 picks
Nuggets -2.5 (-115, BetMGM) | Play to -3 (-110)
Under 214.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Play to 212.5 (-110)
