MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks May 31: Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve

MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks May 31: Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve
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Welcome back to another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!

Baseball will take center stage, as the NBA Finals tip off on Thursday.

Let’s dive into a few matchups that I think make a ton of sense. 

MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks

Pete Alonso more than 6.5 hitter fantasy score

Alonso bought real estate on Aaron Nola Island and never left. Batter vs. pitcher numbers are usually just a factor that I slightly weigh into my process – and only if the sample size is significant.


Pete Alonso has been dominating lefties for the Mets
Pete Alonso has been dominating lefties for the MetsGetty Images

It’s usually about hard contact, fly balls, barrels and pitch mix.

I’m throwing most of that out the window today and putting my BvP hat on. 

Alonso is 15-of-45 with five home runs across his career against Aaron Nola.

It’s not like Alonso has been in the league since 1990 – five home runs against any single pitcher is quite the tally. 

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One start, Nola looks like Cy Young, and during the next, he looks like Justin Carlucci pitching to MLB hitters.

One thing remains constant – Nola gives up hard contact and fly balls when he’s not striking out hitters. 

Nola is yielding a 38% fly ball and 37% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this year, while giving way to a .222 ISO.

He’s been much better against lefties.

Alonso owns a 49% fly-ball rate with a .317 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.

Kevin Roth’s WeatherEdge tool loves this game, with a 29% boost to potential home runs.

Sign me up.

Alek Manoah less than 5.0 pitcher strikeouts

Milwaukee has been brutally bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Good news for them – Manoah is a righty and he’s been worse than anyone in the industry could have predicted this season.

The Brewers still have a fairly high collective strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, but there are three hitters in the projected lineup with strikeout rates better than 20%.

That could be enough to keep Manoah from hitting this mark. He’s striking out just 11% (Yes, ELEVEN) of right-handed hitters this season. 

Manoah’s xFIP is almost 7 and he’s walking a putrid 14% of hitters.

I don’t know what happened to Manoah this season, but we’re just about in June, and nothing has changed for the better.

Patrick Corbin less than 4.0 pitcher strikeouts

Corbin has been certainly holding his own for most of 2023 after being a punching bag for hitters last season.

However, he still isn’t striking out many hitters, sporting just a 14% K rate this season.

The Dodgers lineup has been fantastic against left-handed pitchers this season.

The projected lineup owns a collective 21% strikeout rate with a massive 11% walk rate.

There seems to be plenty of paths for runners to get on base to get Corbin into trouble.

All of the hitters with exploitable strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers are projected to hit in the bottom half of the Los Angeles order.


Jose Altuve has been heating up for the Astros
Jose Altuve has been heating up for the AstrosGetty Images

Jose Altuve more than 7.5 hitter fantasy score

I don’t mind Louie Varland as a young pitcher, but is struggling a bit more against right-handed hitters as a pro.

Varland has been striking out just 20% of them, while yielding a .278 ISO and a 48% hard-hit rate this season.

Altuve, a righty at the top of the Houston order, hits fastballs historically well.

Across a nice sample size over the last three seasons, Altuve owns a .346 ISO, 44% hard-hit rate and just an 11% whiff rate.

Varland throws roughly 40% of fastballs to right-handed hitters.

Altuve should have a high probability of getting on base with an Astros lineup littered with right-handed hitters behind him, increasing chances of gaining fantasy points for runs scored.