Opening day is Thursday for Major League Baseball with all of its traditions.
That means it’s time for the return of an accompanying betting tradition: NRFIs.
For those used to overs and unders, run lines and moneylines, NRFI is No Runs in the First Inning.
It’s a bet that’s just like it sounds: You’re laying money with the hope that both teams don’t score runs in the first inning.
Or at least one team scores in the first inning if you’re betting a YRFI (Yes Runs in the First Inning).
NRFIs don’t come easy and might resemble throwing darts if you’re not looking closely at the stats.
You need two very good starting pitchers as well as a little bit of luck.
Opening day – and the opening few weeks, for that matter – is the best time for NRFIs because the pitching matchups often feature each team’s ace.
And those opportunities might keep cropping up for another week or so as the stars and the pitching rotations align.
As for Thursday’s opening day NRFIs, we have four pitching matchups worth embracing.
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MLB Opening Day picks
Opening Day No Runs First Inning matchups
- Blue Jays (Manoah) at Cardinals (Mikolas) -145, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Twins (Lopez) at Royals (Greinke) -120, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Mets (Scherzer) at Marlins (Alcantara) -185, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Diamondbacks (Gallen) at Dodgers (Urias) -135, 10:10 p.m. ET
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prediction
This might be the best opportunity among Thursday’s NRFI opportunities because the opposing pitchers were two of the best at it last season.
Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesToronto Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah was the eighth-best pitcher in not allowing a first-inning run.
His NRFI rate was 68 percent (21-10).
St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas was almost as good, ranking 11th best with 20 in 32 starts (63 percent).
The fact that both of these teams were in the bottom half of the league in allowing a first-inning run speaks volumes about how good these two pitchers are at getting through the first unscathed.
Twins vs. Royals prediction
This matchup causes a pause, but not for too long.
That’s because there’s value in this pairing.
While the Minnesota Twins’ Pablo Lopez ranked 21st in NRFIs last year (18 out of 32 starts/56 percent), he got his groove at the end of the season.
He finished the season 8-2 on NRFIs in his last 10 games.
Even though Kansas City Royals starter Zack Greinke (39) is one of the oldest pitchers in baseball, he knew how to NRFI last year.
He had a 79 percent rate (19-7) with a 0.98 ERA during his last 18.1 innings.
Max Scherzer #21 of the New York MetsDiamond Images/Getty ImagesMets vs. Marlins prediction
This appears to be the no-brainer pick for any NRFI.
After all, these pitchers made their careers on fooling batters early in the order.
New York Mets starter Max Scherzer ranked 70th for NRFIs at 14-9 (61 percent), numbers we would usually avoid.
Alcantara, however, ranks second at with 23 in 32 starts (72 percent) and hitting it in seven of his last 10 starts.
Yet we’ll suggest a bet on this matchup because of the intimidation factor.
While Alcantara will fool batters with his array of pitches, Scherzer will play with their mind.
Miami Marlins Pitcher Sandy AlcantaraIcon Sportswire via Getty ImagesScherzer took full advantage of the new pitch clock rules during spring training, throwing with two seconds left on the clock to one batter and then pitching to another as soon as the hitter entered the box.
Advantage Scherzer and Alcantara. Advantage NRFI.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction
If you’re up for a NRFI before bedtime, then look no further than Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zach Gallen and Los Angeles Dodgers starter Julio Urias.
There’s more to Gallen than the seventh-most NRFIs (22-9 at 71 percent rate) while hitting in seven of his last 10 starts.
He also is one of the few pitchers who fooled the Dodgers last season, allowing 0.64 ERA in 14 innings.
Urias might not be in Gallen’s company after hitting 42 percent (13-18) of his NRFIs.
Yet he also had mastery of his opponent, compiling a 0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings last season against the Diamondbacks.
It might be a little dicier, but Urias already was looking in midseason form during the World Baseball Classic and spring training.
