Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Miami Dolphins. Be sure to check out our Las Vegas Raiders preview.
Miami Dolphins (+4000 to win the Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 Record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC East)
Last season was a year of hot-and-cold streaks for the Dolphins, who started 1-7 before finishing the season 8-1 to grab nine total wins.
A few fresh faces arrive in Miami to build upon the late-season success. The Dolphins opted to hire 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel after firing former head coach Brian Flores. They also acquired star wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs, while bolstering their offensive line through free agency.
The Dolphins will hope those personnel changes are enough to propel them into the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Tyreek HillIcon Sportswire via Getty Images
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Dolphins offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Hired former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel as head coach
- Traded five draft picks for Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill, who subsequently signed a four-year/$120 million contract with the Dolphins.
- Signed OT Terron Armstead, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Cedrick Wilson, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Chase Edmonds, and G Connor Williams
- Drafted Georgia LB Channing Tindall (No. 102), Texas Tech WR Erik Ezukanma (No. 125), California OLB Cameron Goode (No. 224), and Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson (No. 247)
Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Week 1: vs. New England Patriots
Week 2: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 4: at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 5: at New York Jets
Week 6: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 7: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 8: at Detroit Lions
Week 9: at Chicago Bears
Week 10: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: vs. Houston Texans
Week 13: at San Francisco 49ers
Week 14: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 15: at Buffalo Bills
Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 17: at New England Patriots
Week 18: vs. New York Jets
New Dolphins head coach, Mike McDanielIcon Sportswire via Getty ImagesNFL Betting Lines: Dolphins Win Total O/U
8.5 Wins (FanDuel)
From my perspective, it’s difficult to gauge whether all the Dolphins’ offseason additions make them definitely a better team than at least nine of their opponents to go over 8.5 wins.
The bookends of this schedule are brutal — I believe there’s a real chance Miami notches no more than two combined wins in Weeks 1-4 and 13-18. If I assume correctly that they get off to a poor start — let’s call it 1-3 — will they lose motivation under a new head coach and inexperienced quarterback?
Despite all their quality additions this offseason (Hill chief among them), I still have questions about Tua Tagovailoa going forward in this revamped offense. Sure, a lot of past problems can be attributed to Miami’s horrendous offensive line, an area in which it undoubtedly improved during the offseason, but something feels off about trusting Tua to clear this total, especially at a price of -135.
All that said, there are still elements to like about the Dolphins. They return 10 starters on a defense that ranked 10th in the league in overall defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Additionally, the hiring of McDaniel, an offensive wizard under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, and the addition of Hill should improve an offense that ranked 24th in team DVOA last season.
But the Dolphins also play a majority of games (nine to be exact) against defenses that ranked in the top half of overall DVOA last season. By my estimates, six of those teams — Bills, Patriots, Browns, Steelers, 49ers and Vikings — are solid bets to hold that distinction again this season.
Based on all those trends, I have no choice but to consider the Under for the Dolphins at +115.
Dolphins O/U 8.5 Wins: The Pick
Under 8.5 Wins (+105 or better)
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Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen WaddleGetty ImagesExpert best bets, futures, props
Tua Tagovailoa Under 24.5 Passing TD’s (-112, FanDuel)
Even if Tagovailoa manages to stay healthy — he’s averaged north of 10 starts per year in his first two seasons — I question if he can clear 24.5 passing touchdowns.
Last season, the Alabama product threw for just 16 passing touchdowns. For reference, he ran in three more. Plus, given the additions for Miami in the backfield (Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds), I wonder whether McDaniel is aiming for a more balanced attack that doesn’t see a lion’s share of scoring opportunities for Tua.
Plus, in recalling McDaniel’s time with the 49ers, I can’t help but wonder if he’ll aim to use Hill similarly to Deebo Samuel. If Hill is a live participant in option patterns as a runner, that further takes away from Tagovailoa’s opportunities to throw for touchdowns.
The final element I’m considering with this handicap is that the Dolphins’ schedule matches them up against a number of quality pass defenses. Of those nine games against teams in the top-half of passing defense DVOA from last season, six are against teams that ranked eighth or better.
Until I see Tua actually surpass this benchmark, take the Under on his passing TDs prop down to 23.5.
