March Madness Sweet 16 picks: Houston vs. Miami prediction, odds, best bets

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Just a week ago, Houston entered the NCAA Tournament as the betting favorite to cut down the nets in its own backyard.

Two games later, the Cougars are dealing as the second choice in the title market – and nearly 70% of bettors are picking against them in Friday’s Sweet 16 clash with underdog Miami.

Still, over half of the early money is on Houston, which suggests that sharps are still buying what Kelvin Sampson’s team is selling ahead of the second weekend of March Madness.

Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which tips off at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Houston vs. Miami pick

Houston vs. Miami prediction and analysis

For a moment, it looked like Houston’s title aspirations might go up in flames in the second round.

Then the Cougars reminded everyone why they’re the most complete team in this tournament.

After trailing by 10 points at halftime, Houston outscored Auburn by 27 points and held the Tigers to a paltry 4-of-24 from the field in the second half – which included a scoreless stretch that lasted nearly 11 minutes.

The Cougars finished with 12 blocks and a ridiculous 17 offensive rebounds, which should come as no surprise for a team that ranks in the top five nationally in both departments.

All of that helped power Houston to a 17-point win and its third consecutive trip to the Sweet 16. And I just don’t see this team wilting against an intriguing but flawed Miami team that doesn’t match up well in this one.

Marcus SasserGetty Images

The Hurricanes play with plenty of energy and swagger, as we’ve seen from the best versions of Jim Larranaga’s tenure.

That’s been on display in both tournament games so far, with Miami riding its elite offense to inspired second-half runs in each contest.

Still, at what point does the Hurricanes’ shoddy defense come back to haunt them?

Miami’s adjusted defensive efficiency (101.7) is the worst of any team left in the field – including No. 15 seed Princeton (101.0) – and is a glaring weakness ahead of Friday’s matchup with the top-seeded Cougars, who boast five players averaging at least 10 points.

Leading scorer Marcus Sasser (16.9 PPG) has scored 20-plus points in eight of his last nine full starts. Jarace Walker (11.1) has NBA lottery pick written all over him.

Jamal Shead (10.4) is averaging 15.4 points and 5.1 assists in March. J’Wan Roberts (10.3) ranks 20th nationally in offensive rating (128.3).

And when those four players were limited by foul trouble on Saturday, fifth-leading scorer Tramon Mark (10.0) erupted for 26 points and nine rebounds on 52.9% shooting to put the finishing touches on Auburn’s tournament run.

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Ultimately, Houston possesses too much firepower for Miami to match for 40 full minutes.

That’s to say nothing of the Cougars’ elite defense, which erases shots inside and coaxes teams into ill-advised shots from deep – an approach that doesn’t exactly suit how the Hurricanes have succeeded all year.

With perimeter shooters struggling mightily in this year’s tournament, Houston feels particularly equipped to succeed in this matchup and beyond.

This one could be close at halftime, but don’t be surprised when the Cougars inevitably pull away in what should be a comfortable win.