How Brian Daboll is embracing analytics without giving into them on gameday

How Brian Daboll is embracing analytics without giving into them on gameday

It was a game the Giants needed to win to snap their winless skid and rejuvenate their playoff chances. It was a drive the Giants needed to complete with points, one way or another, if they wanted to expand the 7-3 lead they had on the Commanders late in the second quarter last Sunday night. It was a down and distance that no statistical measure would designate as having a high-percentage success rate.

The tension was mounting and a split-second decision needed to be made. Yet Brian Daboll admitted there really was not much in the way of hand-wringing when the moment of truth arrived.

“That fourth down that we went for there, that was already…we knew that we would go for that in that particular situation on Wednesday after the morning meeting I had with those guys,’’ Daboll said.

“Those guys’’ are Ty Siam, the Giants’ director of football data and innovation, and Cade Knox, the offensive assistant/game manager. Siam is part of general manager Joe Schoen’s front office and Knox is a member of Daboll’s coaching staff. Daboll credited them several times in the hours and days after the Giants exited FedEx Field with a 20-12 victory, greatly enhancing the team’s likelihood of getting into the postseason for the first time since 2016 — and for only the second time since 2011.

Giants head coach Brian Daboll shouts in the second quarter.Brian Daboll was quick to credit the Giants’ analytics team with having helped him decide to go for a lengthy 4th-and-9 conversion that set up the team’s second touchdown in Washington.Bill Kostroun

“Everyone contributed to the win,’’ Daboll said. “Those two guys were certainly a big part of it. Two Ivy Leaguers, so [I] try to listen to the Ivy Leaguers.”

Listening to smart guys is always a smart plan — as long as the smart guys are in accord when it comes to putting the team first and providing information that will be used to inform and not persuade.

Facing a 4th-and-9 on the Washington 35-yard line with 2:23 remaining before halftime on Sunday, the Giants’ odds of converting weren’t good. Consider this: They were successful on just two of their 10 third-down attempts in the game.

The Giants’ alternate options weren’t much better.

A field-goal attempt would have required Graham Gano to try from 53 yards out. And though he nailed a pair of 50-yarders later in the game and he has an exceptionally strong leg, moving much beyond 50 was considered a bit outside his range, especially kicking outdoors in the cold off a natural grass surface that traditionally has been rough for place-kickers.

New York Giants place kicker Graham Gano (9) kicks a field goal as Washington Commanders linebacker Khaleke Hudson (47) defends during the fourth quarter at FedExField.The uncertainty of Graham Gano attempting a 53-yard field goal before halftime helped convince the Giants to go for it on 4th-and-9.USA TODAY Sports

Punting the ball away most likely would not have given Daboll much satisfaction. Perhaps Jamie Gillan could have put the ball down inside the 10-yard line, but he may just as easily have knocked it into the end zone for a touchback, which would have put the Commanders on their 20-yard line and saved the Giants just 15 yards.

Even after Daboll opted to go for it, his choices weren’t optimal. Usually, on fourth-down attempts, a coach has a run-pass option; the distance needed to gain the first down normally is one or two yards. Fourth-and-9, however, leaves no option other than a pass play, but the one called by offensive coordinator Mike Kafka produced the desired results. Daniel Jones did not have to hold onto the ball too long. Richie James made a sharp cut to the outside, and Jones put the pass on the money while under pressure, hitting James in stride for an 11-yard pickup to the Washington 24-yard line at the two-minute warning. Three plays later, Saquon Barkley ran it into the end zone untouched from three yards out to give the Giants a 14-3 lead, completing a mammoth 18-play, 97-yard drive.

Converting on fourth down always makes a head coach look wise for trusting his offense. Daboll credited his mid-week meetings with Siam and Knox for helping make the decision easier for him.

“We [meet] every week, every single week,’’ Daboll said. “So, you don’t know when those things are going to come up or how things are going to evolve. Do you go for it on fourth-and-3 or do you do this? There are so many different things that come up. Do you have discussions during the game? Yeah. I have a line that goes to special teams. I have a line that goes to offense. I have a line that goes to defense. And I have a line that goes to Cade and Ty. So again, the amount of discussion and research that I’d say the two of them do and then sit down with me, we spend a lot of time on it.

New York Giants wide receiver Richie James (80) celebrates after converting on a fourth down reception during the first half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, in Landover, MdRichie James’ 11-yard catch on fourth down late in the second quarter helped the Giants continue a drive that would give them a 14-3 lead.AP

“There’s a lot of numbers and percentages, and there’s also real conversations about the players or the matchups. I don’t think you just take one thing and say, ‘This is what you do.’ I think you have to have a feel for the game, you gotta have a feel for your opponent, you gotta have a feel for the matchup, you gotta have a feel for the weather if something’s different. So, we are always in constant communication and we just try to do what’s best for us.”

Siam, who holds a degree in Policy Analysis & Management from Cornell, has been with the Giants since 2015. He was promoted to his current role three years ago as part of former general manager Dave Gettleman’s push to upgrade the data and analytics departments. Siam also played for the Big Red football team.

Knox graduated two years ago with a degree in psychology from Harvard — where he played football for the Crimson — and was an intern in the football data and innovation department when Daboll arrived. Daboll moved Knox onto the coaching staff to help in the usage of analytics as part of his in-game decision-making.

Every NFL head coach has analytics staffers they confer with on a regular basis. Daboll’s decision to designate Knox as a “game manager’’ shows a willingness to delegate without fear of ceding any authority, perceived or otherwise. To be sure, Daboll makes the final call, but he is also comfortable making public that others have a hand in this and that he does not have all the answers.

“They’re really two guys that I lean on a lot during the week in terms of management, clock management, fourth-down decisions, overtime decisions,’’ Daboll said.

Schoen and Daboll are on the same page with this.

New York Giants GM Joe Schoen (left), and New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll, speaking during practice at the Giants training facility in East Rutherford, New Jersey.General manager Joe Schoen and Daboll both see consulting with the Giants’ analytics department as an important part of formulating the game plan each week.Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

“I believe in it,’’ Schoen said. “Any tool that can help us win games or give us a competitive advantage, we’re going to continue to push the envelope and find out what those are.’’

But Daboll seems less likely to be ruled by the data he receives than other, younger head coaches who at times appear to be infatuated with the numbers. Take his decision to go for two after the Giants had pulled within 20-19 with 1:06 remaining in Nashville earlier this season. No team of numbers-crunchers could tell him that going for two was anything other than a 50-50 proposition. Teams in the NFL this season are 48-for-101 on two-point conversions — 48 percent. The Giants are 2-of-4 — 50 percent. Still, the team called for a shovel pass to Barkley, a decision that produced the winning points.

Daboll embraces the new, but does not ignore his gut and instinct. He uses the data as a guide but not as gospel. There is also plenty of input from several members of the team’s Football Data and Innovation team — Ben Burress, Matthew Dodson, Clark Ewen, Courtney Kennedy and Maxwell Kirin.

“There’s other people that are working back there in the room called the NASA room,’’ Daboll said. “These young ladies and young men are smart as heck.’’

It all filters down to Siam and Knox, with whom Daboll consults in an effort to glean everything he can so he can make the most informed decisions possible on game day.

Giants offensive assistant Cade Knox.Giants offensive assistant Cade Knox was an intern in the team’s data and innovation department before Daboll hired him to his staff.AP

“The meetings that I have with those two individuals, I would say, are very detailed, very well thought-out,’’ Daboll said. “And I’m always asking the questions that I think I need to ask because there’s certain things, I think, you marry it together. It’s not just, ‘This is exactly the number. This is what you should do.’ There’s a feel for a game. There is a ‘How’s it going?’ There’s a look in your players’ eyes. There’s weather. There’s matchups.

“We can go through it all day long, but if one of your linemen is really struggling versus somebody, you got to make a decision. So I lean heavily on them, I believe in it, but I also think that you have to make sure that as a coach, you’re getting the word ‘feel.’ You’re kind of monitoring your team, and again, the matchups, the flow of the game, the score, the situation. I think there’s so many things that go into it. So it’s not just ‘two times two equals four.’ There’s some other things that you got to take into account.’’

And having coached in the NFL since 2000 (minus one year when he ran the offense at Alabama), Daboll, 47, has a wealth of experiences that shape the moves he makes.

“They might run through a couple sheets,’’ Daboll said of Siam and Knox, “and I might go back and say, ‘Well, hold on a second. If we’re down by this, I’m going for one. I know what the numbers say, but I think I want to give the guys a chance to win and get a two-point conversion rather than…’ There’s a lot of discussion that goes on, so it’s good give-and-take. I have a high opinion of those two individuals. They’ve helped a great deal for our football team, and I’m glad we have them.’’

Asked and answered

Here are two questions that have come up recently that we will attempt to answer as accurately as possible:

Down 33-0 at halftime to the Colts, the Vikings produced the greatest comeback in NFL history and ended up winning 39-36 in overtime. Is this a good thing or a bad thing for the Giants?

Is it better to face a team coming off a horrific loss or a huge victory? Hard to say. If the Vikings had not come back and went down in one-sided fashion, at home, they certainly would have been extra-motivated to take all that frustration and embarrassment out on the Giants this Saturday. We would have heard about how hungry and eager the Vikings were for retribution. On the flip side, the incredible comeback also could be a motivating force for the Vikings, catapulting them through the last few games of the season. It’s also possible that scoring 39 points in the second half and overtime might have taken so much out of the Vikings that they are a bit flat against the Giants.

Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings throws a pass against the Indianapolis Colts during overtime at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 17, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.It’s hard to predict how the Vikings will bounce back against the Giants after pulling off the biggest comeback in NFL history last weekend.Getty Images

Brian Daboll does not appear very happy in his press conferences after he wins a game. He also does not look particularly ticked off after a loss. What is his deal?

His deal is different from many other head coaches. “I just don’t believe in riding roller coasters,’’ Daboll said, adding, “I did when I was younger a little bit, I rode it.’’

You can see Daboll showing all sorts of emotion on the sideline -—at times he looks ready to blow — but whatever emotion is brewing inside of him, he processes it and deals with it and then he quiets it once he steps behind the microphone. He says this is all about staying consistent: “I know it is not flashy, but that’s just what I believe in.’’

Fans usually want to see the head coach appearing as disappointed and ticked off as they are after a bad loss; Daboll does not give you that. Fans enjoy seeing the head coach reveling in the moment after a big win; Daboll does not really give you that, either. It is an interesting choice on his part.