Just a few weeks ago, the “Thursday Night Football” matchup between the Broncos and Colts felt like one loaded with star power on both sides of the ball.
Now, however, the contest doesn’t exactly hold the same intrigue after a pair of slow starts for these two teams — but there will still be plenty of offensive talent on display.
Here are three of our favorite prop bets to target at BetMGM ahead of the first game of Week 5, which will kick off at 8:15 p.m. and can be streamed on Amazon Prime Video:
Colts vs. Broncos player prop picks
Russell Wilson longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-120)
It’s no secret that Wilson has seriously underwhelmed in his first four games as a Bronco. But if there’s one thing you can reliably bet on from the nine-time Pro Bowl passer, it’s a deep shot.
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Since 2020, Wilson has completed a pass of 36-plus yards in 22 of 34 games (64.7 percent) — which doesn’t include four games in which his longest pass play traveled between 33 and 35 yards. He has a completion of at least 34 yards in each of his four games this season, most recently uncorking a 55-yard bomb last week in a loss at Las Vegas, despite finishing with just 237 yards overall.
Wilson is on pace for the worst passer rating (91.1) and QBR (44.9) of his career, and his passing yards per game (245) would be his third-lowest since 2014. But his yards per completion (12.3) is tied for his highest since 2013, and he feels like a sure bet to unleash the long ball in each and every start.
Russell WilsonUSA TODAY SportsMelvin Gordon rushing yards Over 54.5 (-110)
This line feels a bit disrespectful to Gordon, who still has the talent and projected workload to rack up yardage in an elevated role on Thursday.
Following the injury to running mate Javonte Williams, the eight-year veteran should see the lion’s share of opportunity for an offense that has averaged 117.3 rushing yards per game since pairing Gordon and Williams in 2021. To his credit, Gordon has averaged 52.9 yards of his own even as the clear second fiddle in this backfield, which won’t be the case on Thursday.
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When Gordon carried the ball more than 10 times last year, he averaged 78.6 yards per game and posted at least 60 yards in six of eight tries — rushing for 53 yards in one of two outliers. With Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard (concussion) ruled out on Thursday, I’d expect Gordon to gash the Indy run defense with what should be a sizable workload.
Alec Pierce Over 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
It has been boom-or-bust thus far for Pierce, who opened his rookie season with a goose egg before breaking out over the last two weeks.
That’s more what we expected from the second-round pick after he drew rave reviews in the offseason. He’s finally making good on that hype, with a combined seven catches for 141 yards in his last two games as a featured target for quarterback Matt Ryan.
Denver’s pass defense has been among the stingiest in the NFL this year, but with Jonathan Taylor (ankle) out, I’d expect the Colts to air it out more than usual on a short week. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Pierce to continue his ascent at a very modest number.
