The Colorado Avalanche are the best team in the NHL. There’s no arguing it. The bookmakers have basically had the Avalanche as the Stanley Cup favorites since last season ended and Colorado gave them no reason to doubt that decision. But just because a team is the clear favorite doesn’t mean it will win. The Avalanche are currently +190 on BetMGM to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. When those odds are converted to implied win probability, the bookmakers give the Avs a 34.5% chance of winning. In other words, there’s a 65.5% chance that someone other than Colorado wins.
That’s because winning the Stanley Cup is incredibly hard. No matter how well you play in the regular season, you’re going to have to beat some really strong opponents to even get to the Stanley Cup Final. Colorado earned the right to play a weak opponent in Round 1 and the Avs brushed the Predators aside without any issue, but now comes the hard part, starting with the St. Louis Blues.
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Because of the way they play and their scoring depth, the Blues will not be a straight-forward matchup for the Avalanche.
St. Louis’ biggest strength is its forward depth. No teams in the NHL can go skater for skater with the Avalanche, but the Blues are one of a few teams that can at least keep pace with them up front. With three terrific scoring lines, the Blues can survive if one of their lines is shut down or needs to spend its time keeping Nathan MacKinnon in check. There are other players that can pick up the slack.
Nathan MacKinnon skates with the puck for the Colorado AvalancheNHLI via Getty ImagesThe Blues finished third overall in goals per game, fifth in 5-on-5 scoring and had the third-best power play during the regular season. Those numbers are encouraging, but of course playing the Avalanche in a best-of-7 is very different from playing a regular season schedule.
Even so, St. Louis is the type of team that can survive the onslaught against the Avalanche. With their deep, clinical attack Blues do not need to drive play or run up the shot clock to have success.
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An opportunistic offense is one part of the puzzle to beating the Avs, but St. Louis won’t have a hope of upsetting the odds if the goaltending doesn’t show up. The good news is that Jordan Binnington showed up in a big way in Round 1. After being replaced as the No. 1 goalie by Ville Husso, Binnington came in for St. Louis in Game 3 and didn’t miss a beat. Binnington skated to a .943 save percentage and +2.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in three games against Minnesota.
Jordan Binnington waves to the crowd after a St. Louis Blues playoff game.NHLI via Getty ImagesAt the other end of the ice will be Darcy Kuemper, who posted a .921 save percentage and +21 GSAx in 57 games this season. However, Kuemper suffered a freak eye injury in Game 3 against Nashville and missed Game 4. Kuemper has been given a clean bill of health, but he’s been off for 10 days so he may be dealing with some rust to open the series.
The Blues are big underdogs for a reason. They are playing the best team in the NHL and have some injury issues to deal with on their back-end. However, this team can score with the Avalanche and their playing style should give them a path to success in both Game 1 and the series.
The Bet: Blues +190
