Bills vs. Browns predictions: No snow no worries in Detroit

Our NFL betting writer presents best betting picks and predictions for the Week 11 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. scheduled to air on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

Buffalo storms into Detroit testy after two losses in a row were chased by a blizzard this week, causing the Bills to sacrifice a home game for a week in downtown Detroit. They’ll play the first of two games at Ford Field — up next, the Lions on Thanksgiving Day — on Sunday and attempt to U-turn their fortunes against the Cleveland Browns (3-6). Cleveland has lost five of its past six games.

Bills vs. Browns picks

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Bills vs. Browns predictions and analysis

Buffalo boasts the NFL’s top offense (424.1 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring (27.8 points per game), however its rushing attack isn’t a conventional one. The Bills rely heavily on bruising quarterback Josh Allen (team-leading 476 rushing yards, four touchdowns) while offering a generous dose of the shifty Devin Singletary and — to a lesser degree — rookie James Cook.

Cleveland was likely a better fit for the snow with a sturdy offensive line and a rushing game led by workhorse Nick Chubb. The Browns average an NFL fifth-best 158.8 rushing yards per game behind Chubb, who ranks third in the NFL with 904 rushing yards on the season.

Browns cover +8

For all that Allen has done right this season, the wrongs are also on full display. The 26-year-old quarterback has thrown six of his league-leading 10 interceptions over his last three games, and his lost fumble in his own end zone led to Buffalo’s demise last week.

Allen also is nursing an injured right throwing elbow, which might’ve benefited from minimal practice time for the Bills this week.

The Bills listed 13 players being listed on the injury report — including several key cogs on defense — due to illness and didn’t practice Friday. All of the variables add up to the Browns hanging around in a game that might be closer in the final minutes than expected.

Bills vs. Browns pick: Browns to cover +8 @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Browns to score first touchdown

Chubb has scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his last eight games to boost his league-leading total to 11 on the season. The 26-year-old will arrive angry. This week he described his mood with this footnote — “frustrating when you’re not winning.”

Frustration is a fueling emotion for Chubb, who was limited to just 63 yards on 11 carries last week — and 33 of those yards came on the touchdown run in the fourth quarter. He leads the NFL in 10 yards runs, yards after contact and draws a Buffalo defense with injuries and ailments at every turn.

Bills vs. Browns pick: Browns to score first touchdown @ +165 at Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Under 49.5 total points

The over-under point total for the game started at 48, fell to 43 due to the blizzard forecast and was bumped all the way to 49.5 when oddsmakers reset the game as a neutral site oddity in Detroit.

Going inside to Ford Field takes away the high risk of turnovers and a run-only approach on offense. But the Bills are openly discussing taking a more conservative approach given Allen’s rash of turnovers, including four red-zone interceptions in two weeks.

Bills vs. Browns pick: Under 49.5 total points @ 110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Bills vs. Browns odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, accurate at the time of publishing and subject to change.