2022 Scottish Open picks, odds: Three matchup bets include Viktor Hovland

We’re only a day away from the start of the Scottish Open, leaving us one final chance to lock in some bets.

Yesterday’s focus was all about our favorite derivative bets, but today we’re onto the matchup markets. For this event, I’ve identified two head-to-head markets as well as one three-ball market that provide good value based on my statistical modeling. In one instance, I’ve discovered an underdog that – from my perspective – should be a favorite.

So, without further delay, here are my best matchup bets for the Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

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Viktor Hovland (-115) over Ryan Fox

Fox has been lighting it up on the DP World Tour lately — three top-10’s in his last four starts — but I believe Hovland’s game suits this course better.

Fox, for all his recent success, hasn’t produced many good finishes at The Renaissance Club. He missed the cut in both 2019 and 2020 before finishing in a tie for 44th in 2021. And, when you measure his game up against PGA Tour competition, Fox doesn’t model out very well (80th in the field across his last 12 qualifying rounds).

As for Hovland, he’s never played an event at this track, but models out decently well. Across his last 12 rounds, the Norway international ranks 46th in the field. Over his last 24 rounds, he rises up to 25th in the field.

In terms of the 12-round projection, though, Hovland ranks ahead of Fox in a number of key categories. The former Ryder Cupper beats Fox in SG: Approach (52nd vs. 74th), birdies or better gained (36th vs. 81st) and three-putt avoidance (40th vs. 138th).

Hovland is also a top-five putter from both measured distances — fifth from five-10 feet and from 10-15 feet — so he should carry an edge on the tricky greens in Scotland.

Corey Conners (-105) over Sungjae Im

Both of these players are relatively inexperienced at the Renaissance Club — only Conners has appeared, missing the cut in 2021 — but I make the Canadian a favorite here.

Over their last 12 rounds, Conners doubles-up Sungjae Im in my statistical model (14th vs. 28th) and carries advantages in a lot of key categories. He wins the battle in SG: Approach (8th vs. 14th), GIRs gained (1st vs. 6th) and a heavy advantage in birdies or better gained (29th vs. 62nd).

But, there are further categories where Conners’s advantage is even more extended. Take three-putt avoidance — over his last 12 rounds, the Canadian ranks 54th in the field. As for Im, he’s an incredibly unreliable 113th. Conners has also demonstrated a previous ability to take advantage of par 5’s. Entering this tournament, he’s 32nd in SG: Par 5’s whereas Im ranks 108th in the same metric.

Im also struggles to putt from short distances as he ranks 88th in the field between five and 10 feet (Conners is 46th).

Betting on golf?

Lastly, Conners has owned a historical edge over the South Korean international this season. In seven tournament in which they’ve both made the cut, Conners has won the head-to-head battle five times. If you include the tournaments in which one or both miss the cut, Conners still has a slight 6-5 edge.

Justin Thomas (+125) over Hideki Matsuyama & Tommy Fleetwood

To me, the only player in this group that can realistically challenge Thomas is Fleetwood, a former runner-up at this track.

However, Thomas owns a more complete record than the Englishman. In two starts at the Renaissance Club, Thomas has produced two top-10 finishes. Fleetwood, on the other hand, finished tied for 26th last year after his runner-up in 2020. As for Matsuyama, the 2021 Masters champion has never made an appearance at The Renaissance Club.

Beyond the course history, though, Thomas is undoubtedly the best of this group in terms of his underlying statistical measures. Over the last 24 rounds, Thomas ranks third overall in the field. In that same projection, Matsuyama sits 22nd while Fleetwood sits 33rd.

In terms of the four most emphasized statistical categories — driving distance, SG: Approach, birdies or better gained and SG: Par 5’s — Thomas comes out ahead in three of four. Here’s how the trio rates out in each category

1. Driving Distance: Thomas (12th), Matsuyama (86th), Fleetwood (92nd)
2. SG: Approach: Thomas (12th), Matsuyama (6th), Fleetwood (22nd)
3. BoB Gained: Thomas (4th), Matsuyama (14th), Fleetwood (38th)
4. SG: Par 5’s: Thomas (21st), Matsuyama (36th), Fleetwood (86th)

For all those reasons, take the American up to +110 in this three-ball matchup as I believe he’s the most reliable of the bunch.