This is my favorite starting pitching matchup of the young 2024 MLB season.
Tarik Skubal and Nestor Cortes were two pitchers I was exceedingly high on entering the year, and both have exceeded expectations in the early going.
That said, I’m still much higher on Skubal.
Detroit’s 27-year-old southpaw has evolved into the AL Cy Young frontrunner, posting a 1.72 ERA and 25 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate across his first six outings.
His four-seam fastball and slider are above-average pitches by the Stuff+ model (113 and 109, respectively).
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And his changeup is nearly unhittable, inducing a whopping 27 percent swinging-strike rate while allowing a meager .250 wOBA.
Skubal added some extra velocity and ride to his heater last year, so he’s used it to generate early high-zone strikes.
After getting ahead in the count, he generates low-zone whiffs with his secondaries. His stuff and pitch mix is proving impossible to break.
Nestor Cortes Getty Images Cortes is an excellent pitcher, but projection systems place his season-long ERA and FIP around 4.00 while projecting Skubal in the low 3.00s, giving the Tigers a nearly run-sized advantage on the mound.
The Yankees have the offensive advantage (114 wRC+ to 92), but it’s less pronounced in a lefty-against-lefty matchup (100 wRC+ to 95).
It’s also worth mentioning that Skubal faced the Yankees last August, pitching six two-run frames with nine strikeouts.
The Yankees also have the better bullpen, but it’s hard to discount Detroit’s 2.80 reliever ERA.
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Jason Foley, Alex Faedo, Shelby Miller, Alex Lange and Andrew Chafin have stepped up for the 18-14 Kitties.
Ultimately, the Tigers are an elite team with Skubal on the mound, hence their 5-1 record in his starts this season.
The play: Tigers, +105 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
