It’s another busy Wednesday in MLB, with a full slate of 15 games.
We have our sights set on two of them, with three best bets from around the league.
Wednesday’s MLB best bets
Reynaldo Lopez (Braves vs. Marlins) over 4.5 strikeouts (-150, DraftKings)
It’s taken a few years for Lopez to put it together, but he finally seems to be figuring it out in Atlanta.
Lopez spent the previous 10 years with for teams (seven of them with the White Sox) and had control problems and was hit hard. But his latest stop appears to have brought out the best version of himself.
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Lopez was used as a reliever last season in Cleveland, where he posted solid numbers: 30% strikeout rate, 14% whiff rate. He still walks a fair share of lefties, but Miami isn’t a team that looks to draw walks.
Although Lopez hadn’t started a game since 2022 (before Atlanta suddenly depended on him after Spencer Strider’s brutal injury), there hasn’t been too much of a drop-off from a swing-and-miss perspective.
He still has a 25% strikeout rate, and the good news is he should be clear to throw roughly 100 pitches now that he’s been stretched out across three very good outings.
Miami has an average strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching this season, but I think Lopez’s stuff is good enough to push his five-K projection at worst.
He cleared this number in each of his three starts, and that includes games against the Astros and Mets, who have better strikeout rates vs. right-handed pitchers than the Marlins do.
Atlanta Braves F5 run line -1.5 (+100, BetMGM)
While Atlanta suddenly has the more-than-formidable Lopez on the bump, the Marlins continue to be in a world of hurt.
Much like Lopez, it’s been a long time coming for Sixto Sanchez, who will (at minimum) open the game for the Braves.
The former Phillies top prospect has dealt with numerous injuries, and also just hasn’t lived up to the high expectations over the years.
Once a top prospect with the Phillies, Sixto Sanchez has yet to find his footing with the Marlins. Getty Images Sanchez has been decent in relief this season, but he does not miss bats, striking out just 8% of hitters.
Once upon a time, he was being groomed as a starting pitcher, but he has thrown no more than 34 pitches in any game this season.
Even if he makes it through three innings, when he departs Atlanta will battle a Miami bullpen that owns the sixth-worst ERA, second-worst WHIP, and has yielded the third-most earned runs.
Twins vs. White Sox over 6.5 runs (-115, FanDuel)
I like both of starting pitchers in this matchup, but this line is a tick too light for a few reasons.
Garrett Crochet has nasty swing-and-miss stuff. However, the reliever-turned-starter has major control issues, walking 15% of left-handed hitters this season.
Although the Twins will probably roll out a fair share of righties in their lineup, Crochet owns a 60% hard-hit rate this season and hasn’t pitched into the seventh inning even once. He’s also given up at least three earned runs in three of his four starts.
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Joe Ryan is a great pitcher, and the White Sox are the current laughing stock of the league. But Eloy Jimenez is back in the lineup, and on Tuesday the Sox got to Pablo Lopez, who was yesterday’s “sure thing.”
That’s critical because Lopez only lasted four innings, and Minnesota was forced to use four of its typical relievers to eat up outs.
Ryan was fantastic the first time through the opposing batting order last season, but struggled a bit during the second trip. He only pitched into the seventh inning in five of 32 starts dating to the beginning of 2023.
I don’t necessarily believe this game is going to go nuclear, but I think this line should be 7.5, not 6.5, on Wednesday night
